Post by seanzie on Dec 5, 2023 7:36:17 GMT -6
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For most of the last decade, the CFP committee has gone out of its way to insist it is choosing the best four teams for the playoff, not the most deserving, and the only redeeming aspect of that was the fact that it was patently untrue. From 2022 TCU to 2021 Cincinnati to 2018 (and 2019) Oklahoma to 2015 Michigan State and even 2014 Florida State, the committee included plenty of teams that were in no way among the four best teams in the country. Some were closer than others, but to a team they all deserved to be there because of what they had accomplished in actually winning games on the field. Each of the first 39 teams the committee selected was justifiable. Then, with its 40th pick, it finally went "best" over "most deserving."
Well, sort of. This is the worst Alabama team in 15 years, one that ranks just seventh in SP+ and fifth in FPI and only sporadically looked like anything close to a playoff team. But hey, it has a healthy quarterback at least.
In two games without Travis, FSU's offense indeed cratered. SP+ projections are not adjusted for injury, so it can be a pretty useful tool for understanding the impact of a given injury. And the impact of Travis' injury was dire: Against Florida and Louisville, the Seminoles offense scored a combined 30 fewer points than projected. (Second-stringer Tate Rodemaker also was injured and didn't play against Louisville in the ACC championship game, meaning the Noles had to face the No. 26 defense in the country, per SP+, with third-string freshman Brock Glenn. They would have had Rodemaker back for the postseason, however.)
In that same span, however, the FSU defense also allowed 19.5 fewer points. It held Florida to a season low in yards (232, 81 fewer than any other game) and yards per play (3.9), then did exactly the same thing to Louisville. The Cardinals' previous season lows were 306 yards and 4.8 yards per play against NC State in September; FSU allowed them 188 yards and 2.7.
Forced to step up due to the Seminoles' offensive struggles, FSU's defense suddenly became the best in the sport. And because of that, the Seminoles beat Florida by more points on the road (nine) than No. 9 Missouri had the week before at home (two), then beat Louisville (24th in SP+) by more than Alabama beat Auburn (37th) and Arkansas (58th) combined. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, had FSU been playing South Florida on Saturday night, the Noles would have won by more than the 14-point margin Alabama mustered in September, too.
But none of that matters. FSU's offense struggled, and in a sport that already has the smallest imaginable sample size, the committee therefore decided that only 1½ games should end up determining a playoff slot: Alabama-Georgia and the half of FSU-Louisville that happened when the Seminoles had the ball.
The committee decided to choose a team that could win -- and to be sure, Alabama could absolutely win the whole damn thing now that it's gotten a lifeline -- over a team that actually deserved to be there. And it fulfilled every seemingly unfounded conspiracy theory anyone has ever had about the power of TV ratings, the SEC and/or the sport's biggest brands in the decision-making process.
Bill C nails this one
