Who's playing in Pasadena (2014 BCSNCG)?

[The Commish Dude Abides]

So, I think it's safe to say that Oregon is out. Despite all the talk this morning about Baylor, they've beaten one good team at home (OU) and have at least 3-4 very tough games to play. I think they lose on the road to OSU next week.

FSU has the easiest road to get there. Let's just assume they're in for now.

And then there's UAT. Much talk this morning about how the BCS will feature UAT vs. FSU. Not so fast. Even assuming a win against LSU this weekend, UAT has Auburn on the road and then the SECCG, likely against Missouri.

So, should UAT lose one of those games, who does that leave to play FSU? Ohio State plays nobody and could/should be passed by a number of one loss teams. Yes, there's Stanford with some good wins, no doubt. But that loss to a very mediocre UTAH team?? That is an anchor they cannot overcome. They will get leapfrogged.

And this is where it gets interesting for present company. Consider the resume IF our beloved Auburn Tigers run the table: big wins against Texas A&M (on the road), UAT, UGA, and Missouri in the SECCG. Brad Edwards was talking about how impressive Mizzou's resume would be, including beating an "improved" Ole Miss team at the end (with 7 wins). So Auburn has that too. And only an early loss against a quality LSU team on the road. That'a a quality resume right there. And it's time to cash in our chips from 2004, as well, thank you very much. There will be the inevitable detractors, mostly consisting of the SEC haters and OSU lovers. But there are not many sound arguments or viable alternatives to an AU team with that resume to put up against FSU.

So, the sunshine pumper scenario is alive and well for Auburn to get to the BCS NCG, folks. Keep hope alive!!

[CHB]

While it is possible that Auburn makes it I wouldn't bet on it. I'm not so sure a one loss team would jump OSU in the BCS. They might get jumped in the computer polls but the human polls most likely would keep them #2 should all the other teams lose one. Auburn just needs to keep winning and hope for some miracles that happened for uat in the past. I do think that the computers would like Auburn a lot should they continue to win.

[Jet]

I don't care how bad tOSU's schedule is. if Coarch Earvin Meyers' team is the only undefeated (or is one of two undefeated BCS conference teams), it will be in the game.

[ehyou]

Nov 8, 2013 9:43:40 GMT -6 Jet said:

I don't care how bad tOSU's schedule is. if Coarch Earvin Meyers' team is the only undefeated (or is one of two undefeated BCS conference teams), it will be in the game.

...and deservedly so.

[The Commish Dude Abides]

As you can see from these team strength of schedule rankings, OSU has a very weak schedule (50). I imagine it will only get worse with their upcoming games. Meanwhile, Auburn's gets tougher. I think that will mean a lot not only with the computers but with the voters.

The humans have already anointed UAT as the likely BCS winner. A late win over them would catapult AU way up in everyone's minds as worth of BCS title consideration. Meanwhile, OSU will be playing Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Lame. Do they even have to play in a conference championship game? If so, MSU will likely beat them.

Feel the sunshine pouring in hatuhs!!!!

[API]

Interesting topic. IMHO, Auburn finishes as the top rated one loss team. I do not however see us getting into the BCSNCG. We could finish higher than the loser of that game at #2. Keeping the hate, and the hope, alive.

[Norm]

tosu gets all the love. Constantly over rated and historically proven to be the weaker opponent against the SEC. There's a glimmer of hope for AU should we win out, but I wouldn't count on us getting asked to The Dance.

[Jet]

Nov 8, 2013 9:50:35 GMT -6 The Commish Dude Abides said:

The humans have already anointed UAT as the likely BCS winner. A late win over them would catapult AU way up in everyone's minds as worth of BCS title consideration.

Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

I hope you are correct, Commish. Just not convinced of it.

[The Commish Dude Abides]

Nov 8, 2013 10:32:16 GMT -6 Norm said:

tosu gets all the love. Constantly over rated and historically proven to be the weaker opponent against the SEC. There's a glimmer of hope for AU should we win out, but I wouldn't count on us getting asked to The Dance.

Yep. The Buckeyes have never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game in nine chances. Blown out in back-to-back BCS Championship games in 2007 and 2008. But this is a new era of Irvin Meyuhs' OSU ... phhhtttttt.

[The Commish Dude Abides]

Wait a second folks, thUGA will actually be representing the SEC in the BCS game. A brief moment of comic relief from a thUGA fan (on AJC):

"after we destroy [Auburn] and after we steamroll bama we will have dominating wins* over lsu, floriduh, auburn, and bama. with a resumay like that there is no way we should get snubbed for a title shot."

I love it. That kind of delusion and denial (almost) makes my sunshine pumping look rational.

*thUGA beat UF and LSU by three. Nice "resumay"

[steve]

I think South Carolina makes the SECCG, not Missouri. Texas A&M will likely beat Missouri. They could also lose to Ole Miss.

[steve]

Unless UGA buys tickets, they aren't going to a BCS game, let alone a BCSNCG.

[E-Bro]

Agree with Steve (gulp). If we beat UGA next week, think it'll be USCe in ATL. Don't see Mizzou getting through Ole Miss AND aTm unscathed.

[bubbs]

Not sure why SFC seems to loath Mizzou so. They're playing really well. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they DO make it through aTm/Omiss.

All of that, of course, is irrelevant. The way I look at it is this: if we keep winning we (obviously) get the SEC title. We then play in the big game or keep all other SEC teams from playing in it. We can't lose.

[steve]

Missouri has played well against the lower division. Their reality check is being processed.